The Yellow River Ice Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory Evaluation Method

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The Yellow River Ice Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory Evaluation Method

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[1]LI Zongkun,HU Yilei,et al.The Yellow River Ice Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory Evaluation Method[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2023,44(01):89-95.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2022.04.011]

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Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science)[ISSN 1671-6833/CN 41-1339/T] Volume: 44卷 Number of periods: 2023 01 Page number: 89-95 Column: Public date: 2022-12-06

Title:: The Yellow River Ice Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory Evaluation Method

Author(s):: LI Zongkun¹; 2; HU Yilei¹; DENG Yu³; 4; GE Wei¹; 5; 1.School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;2.School of Software, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, China;3.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China;4.Research Center on Levee Safety and Disaster Prevention, MWR, Zhengzhou 450003, China;5.Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 BX, the Netherlands

Keywords:: ice flood disaster; risk evaluation; catastrophe theory; improvement; three-parameter exponent

CLC:: TV875；X43

DOI:: 10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2022.04.011

Abstract:: Considering the problem that the comprehensive evaluation value of the catastrophe theory evaluation method was too high and the evaluation values were relatively close, an improved method for regression analysis using a three-parameter exponential curve was proposed and verified by two examples. Not only the calculated improved evaluation value and the conventional evaluation value were the same in size order, but also the range was significantly increased, and the distribution of the data on [0,1] was more scattered. Considering the natural and social attributes of the Yellow River ice flood disaster, established a four-level risk evaluation index system was established, and the improved method was applied to the ice flood disaster risk assessment of 4 counties on both sides of the Yellow River from Toudaoguai to Wanjiazhai in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that Pianguan County was in a very low-risk area; Zhungeer Banner was in a high-risk area; Qingshuihe County and Tuoketuo County were in the medium-risk area. The comprehensive evaluation values obtained by the conventional catastrophe theory evaluation method were very close, except for Pianguan, the rest are concentrated in the interval [0.912, 0.941], which was not conducive to intuitively and effectively distinguishing the degree of risk. The improved method could effectively expand the distribution range of the adjusted comprehensive evaluation value, and the range reached 0.446, which had a higher level of resolution, and the level of risk was more comparable. The evaluation results were basically consistent with the analysis of actual ice conditions in various regions.

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Last Update: 2022-12-07