Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN

NAVIGATE

Table of Contents

STATISTICS

Viewed818

Downloads713

Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN

[HTML] PDF下载 (713)

[1]ZHANG Hua,PENG Zhaohui,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2023,44(05):108-113.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2023.02.015]

Copy

Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science)[ISSN 1671-6833/CN 41-1339/T] Volume: 44卷 Number of periods: 2023 05 Page number: 108-113 Column: Public date: 2023-08-20

Title:: Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN

Author(s):: ZHANG Hua; PENG Zhaohui; ZHANG Qiang; MA Mengmeng; WANG Yawei; LI Zongkun

Keywords:: El Sillar highway; progress risk; dynamic Bayesian network; progress monitoring data

CLC:: TV698

DOI:: 10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2023.02.015

Abstract:: Traditional Bayesian network (BN)method was difficult to ensure the dynamic assessment of construction progress risk, on the basis of analyzing the risk sources of construction progress lag, the time factor was introduced to horizontally expand the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) with multiple time periods, and the construction progress risk was dynamically assessed in combination with the construction progress monitoring data. El Sillar highway project was taken as an example to verify the rationality of the method. The results showed that the construction progress risk of the El Sillar Highway Project was controllable as a whole, and the probability of completion in each period was about 60%. The risk of delay showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The main factor causing the delay of the construction period was the environmental risk, the DBN model could consider the dynamics of risk factors, so it was superior to the static model. The dynamic risk analysis of highway construction progress based on DBN could provide reference for similar projects.

References:: [1] 王首绪, 谢剑. 基于风险传播的高速公路项群风险评价[ J] . 公路, 2016, 61(8) : 151-156.
WANG S X, XIE J. Risk assessment of expressway project group based on risk transmission [ J ] . Highways, 2016, 61(8) : 151-156.
[2] 白礼彪, 张璐瑶, 孙怡晨, 等. 公路工程项目组合施工进度风险防范策略[ J] . 中国公路学报, 2021, 34 (9) : 203-214.
BAI L B, ZHANG L Y, SUN Y C, et al. Prevention strategy of highway project portfolio construction schedule risk[ J] . China Journal of Highway and Transport, 2021, 34(9) : 203-214.
[3] HATEFI S M, TAMOSAITIENE J. An integrated fuzzy dematel-fuzzy anp model for evaluating construction projects by considering interrelationships among risk factors [ J ] . Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2019, 25(2) : 114-131.
[4] 戴幼学. Y 高速公路建设项目风险分析和控制研究 [D] . 广州: 华南理工大学, 2019.
DAI Y X. Research on risk analysis and control of Y expressway construction project [ D ] . Guangzhou: South China University of Technology, 2019.
[5] 王张军, 顾伟红, 李健强. 基于 WSR-GCM 的地铁 TBM 施工进度风险评价 [ J] . 铁道标准设计, 2020, 64(9) : 127-132.
WANG Z J, GU W H, LI J Q. Risk assessment of TBM construction schedule based on WSR-GCE [ J] . Railway Standard Design, 2020, 64(9) : 127-132.
[6] 蒋慧杰, 吴慧博, 夏立明, 等. 高速公路施工进度风第 5 期张华,等:基于 DBN 的艾尔西亚高等级公路施工进度风险评估 113 险评价[ J] . 重庆大学学报( 社会科学版) , 2012, 18 (2) : 87-93.
JIANG H J, WU H B, XIA L M, et al. The application of CPA and fuzzy probability analysis on risk evaluation of highway construction schedule [ J]. Journal of Chongqing University (Social Science Edition), 2012, 18(2): 87-93.
[7] 张定邦, 张航, 袁建议, 等. 西北地区公路工程建设项目延误原因分析[ J] . 土木工程与管理学报, 2018, 35(2) : 95-100, 109.
ZHANG D B, ZHANG H, YUAN J Y, et al. Cause analysis of road engineering construction project in northwest China[ J] . Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 2018, 35(2) : 95-100, 109.
[8] HYUN K C, MIN S, CHOI H, et al. Risk analysis using fault-tree analysis ( FTA) and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) applicable to shield TBM tunnels[ J]. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology, 2015, 49: 121-129.
[9] MAHAMID I, BRULAND A, DMAIDI N. Causes of delay in road construction projects[ J] . Journal of Management in Engineering, 2012, 28(3) : 300-310.
[10] MOGHAYEDI A, WINDAPO A. Key uncertainty events impacting on the completion time of highway construction projects [ J ] . Frontiers of Engineering Management, 2019, 6(2) : 275-298.
[11] 何清华, 杨德磊, 罗岚, 等. 基于贝叶斯网络的大型复杂工程项目群进度风险分析[ J] . 软科学, 2016, 30 (4) : 120-126, 139.
HE Q H, YANG D L, LUO L, et al. Research of large scale and complex construction programs′ schedule risk based on Bayesian network[ J] . Soft Science, 2016, 30 (4) : 120-126, 139.
[12] 葛巍, 焦余铁, 洪辛茜, 等. 基于 AHP-BN 法的溃坝生命损失风险评价 [ J] . 郑州大学学报 ( 工学版) , 2021, 42(3) : 8-12.
GE W, JIAO Y T, HONG X Q, et al. Risk assessment of life loss caused by dam breach based on AHP-BN method[ J] . Journal of Zhengzhou University ( Engineering Science) , 2021, 42(3) : 8-12.
[13] 陈远, 金蕊, 查亚闯. 基于贝叶斯网络的大型公共项目进度延误风险研究[ J] . 郑州大学学报( 工学版) , 2022, 43(2) : 91-97.
CHEN Y, JIN R, ZHA Y C. Research on delay risk of large complex public projects based on Bayesian network [ J] . Journal of Zhengzhou University ( Engineering Science) , 2022, 43(2) : 91-97.
[14] 孙开畅, 李权, 徐小峰, 等. 施工高危作业人因风险分析动态贝叶斯网络的应用 [ J] . 水力发电学报, 2017, 36(5) : 28-35.
SUN K C, LI Q, XU X F, et al. Risk analysis on human factors in operation of high risk construction based on dynamic Bayesian network[ J] . Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering, 2017, 36(5) : 28-35.
[15] LUU V T, KIM S Y, TUAN N V, et al. Quantifying schedule risk in construction projects using Bayesian belief networks [ J] . International Journal of Project Management, 2009, 27(1) : 39-50.
[16] 李宗坤, 王特, 葛巍, 等. 基于 WBS-RBS 和 AHP 的港珠澳大桥人工岛建设风险分析[ J] . 郑州大学学报 (工学版) , 2020, 41(3) : 62-66.
LI Z K, WANG T, GE W, et al. Risk analysis of artificial island construction of Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge based on WBS-RBS and AHP methods[ J] . Journal of Zhengzhou University ( Engineering Science ) , 2020, 41(3) : 62-66.

Similar References:

Memo

Last Update: 2023-09-04