Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN

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Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN

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[1]ZHANG Hua,PENG Zhaohui,ZHANG Qiang,et al.Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2023,44(05):108-113.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2023.02.015]

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Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science)[ISSN 1671-6833/CN 41-1339/T] Volume: 44 Number of periods: 2023 05 Page number: 108-113 Column: Public date: 2023-08-20

Title:: Construction Progress Risk Assessment of El Sillar Highway Based on DBN

Author(s):: ZHANG Hua; PENG Zhaohui; ZHANG Qiang; MA Mengmeng; WANG Yawei; LI Zongkun

Keywords:: El Sillar highway; progress risk; dynamic Bayesian network; progress monitoring data

CLC:: TV698

DOI:: 10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2023.02.015

Abstract:: Traditional Bayesian network (BN)method was difficult to ensure the dynamic assessment of construction progress risk, on the basis of analyzing the risk sources of construction progress lag, the time factor was introduced to horizontally expand the Bayesian network into a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) with multiple time periods, and the construction progress risk was dynamically assessed in combination with the construction progress monitoring data. El Sillar highway project was taken as an example to verify the rationality of the method. The results showed that the construction progress risk of the El Sillar Highway Project was controllable as a whole, and the probability of completion in each period was about 60%. The risk of delay showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing. The main factor causing the delay of the construction period was the environmental risk, the DBN model could consider the dynamics of risk factors, so it was superior to the static model. The dynamic risk analysis of highway construction progress based on DBN could provide reference for similar projects.

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Last Update: 2023-09-04