Research on Delay Risk of Large Complex Public Projects Based on Bayesian Network

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Research on Delay Risk of Large Complex Public Projects Based on Bayesian Network

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[1]CHEN Yuan,JIN Rui,ZHA Yachuang.Research on Delay Risk of Large Complex Public Projects Based on Bayesian Network[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2022,43(02):91-97.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2022.02.002]

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Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science)[ISSN 1671-6833/CN 41-1339/T] Volume: 43卷 Number of periods: 2022 02 Page number: 91-97 Column: Public date: 2022-02-27

Title:: Research on Delay Risk of Large Complex Public Projects Based on Bayesian Network

Author(s):: CHEN Yuan; JIN Rui; ZHA Yachuang; School of Civil Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Keywords:: large and complex public projects; schedule delay risk; Bayesian network; interpretative structural model

CLC:: TU712+.4 F294.1

DOI:: 10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2022.02.002

Abstract:: The current research on the schedule delay risk of large public projects mainly focused on identifying the risk factors of schedule delay and analyzing the interaction between the risk factors, there was a lack of quantitative analysis of the sensitivity and importance of risk factors and the intensity of influence between risk factors. In this study, Bayesian network and interpretive structure model were used in the assessment of schedule risk of large and complex public projects. Based on the collection of 7 deferred risk factor systems derived from real cases, 24 major deferred risk factors were refined, then the explanatory structure model was used to process the risk factors into four different levels, and the hierarchical structure diagram was transformed into a Bayesian network. Finally, according to the established Bayesian network, the risk factors were collected and evaluated based on actual project data. The collected data were imported into GeNIe, the parameters of the Bayesian network model was learnt, and obtain the probability distribution of the risk level of schedule delay based on the sample data.And using Bayesian network reverse reasoning, sensitivity analysis, and influence intensity analysis were used, the key factors and sensitive factors that lead to schedule delays in large and complex public projects are clarified, and a scientific and effective theoretical basis and control tools were offered for schedule risk management.

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Last Update: 2022-02-25