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Risk Assessment of Life Loss Caused by Dam Breach Based on AHP-BN Method
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[1]Ge Wei,Jiao Yu Tie,Hong Xinqian,et al.Risk Assessment of Life Loss Caused by Dam Breach Based on AHP-BN Method[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2021,42(03):8-.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2021.03.002]
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Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science)[ISSN 1671-6833/CN 41-1339/T] Volume: 42卷 Number of periods: 2021 03 Page number: 8- Column: Public date: 2021-05-10
Title:
Risk Assessment of Life Loss Caused by Dam Breach Based on AHP-BN Method
Author(s):
Ge Wei; Jiao Yu Tie; Hong Xinqian; Duan Zhichang; Li Zongkun; Gao Satellite;
School of Water Conservancy and Engineering, Zhengzhou University; School of Technical Policy and Management of Daerph University of Technology; Institute of International River and Ecological Security of Yunnan University; School of Political and Public Management of Zhengzhou University;
Keywords:
dam breach;  life loss;  AHP-BN;  evaluation model;  risk assessment
CLC:
-
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2021.03.002
Abstract:
The accuracy and praclicability of life loss assessment can not be realized synergistically due to many factors affecting the life loss of dam break and relatively few historical statistics.A model suitable for the evaluation og life loss of dam brach is prosposd. Eight indexes,i.e.,severity of dam break flood,alarm time,occurrence time of dam break,risk population,understanding degree of dam break,proportion of young and middle-aged people,building quality and rescue capacity,are selected to build a dam break lif loss index system.The index grade is divided according to the relevant standards and criteria.AHP-BN method is used to comprehensively consider the influence of weight and probability,calculate the risk value of life loss,and build a dam break life loss assessment model.The application of the model to an example shows that risk values of life loss of the three dams are ranked in the model to an example shows that the risk values of life loss of the three dams are ranked in the order of Lijiazui Reservoir (0.626),Dongkoumiao Reservoir (0.594) and Shijiagou Reservoir (0.522).The evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation,which verifies the validity and practical value in engineering of this model.
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Last Update: 2021-06-24
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