According to the spatiotemporal effect of tunnel construction deformation, a tunnel deformation prediction method based on summation type autoregressive sliding average ARIMA (p, d, q) calculation model is proposed. Differential operation is used to stabilize the on-site monitoring data, the computational model is determined by the analysis of self-and partial autocorrelation functions, the order of the model is determined by the AIC criterion, and finally the model parameters are estimated by the least squares method. The engineering application shows that the average relative error between the forecast value and the actual settlement amount of the nonstationary time series analysis method is 8.28%, and the maximum absolute error is 0.45 mm, which shows that it is feasible to use the nonstationary time series analysis method to make short-term prediction and real-time monitoring of tunnel construction deformation.