[1]杨伟超,彭立敏,黄娟,等.非平稳时序分析法在隧道施工变形预测中的应用[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2008,29(01):132-135.
　Yang Weichao,PENG Limin,HUANG Juan,et al.Application of nonstationary time series analysis method in tunnel construction deformation prediction[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2008,29(01):132-135.
点击复制

非平稳时序分析法在隧道施工变形预测中的应用()
分享到：

《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
29卷
期数:
2008年01期
页码:
132-135
栏目:
出版日期:
1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Application of nonstationary time series analysis method in tunnel construction deformation prediction
作者:
杨伟超; 彭立敏; 黄娟; 等.
中南大学,土木建筑学院,湖南,长沙,410075, 中南大学,土木建筑学院,湖南,长沙,410075, 中南大学,土木建筑学院,湖南,长沙,410075, 中南大学,土木建筑学院,湖南,长沙,410075
Author(s):
Yang Weichao; PENG Limin; HUANG Juan; etc
关键词:
隧道;  变形;  非稳定时序;  ARMA;  预测
Keywords:
tunnels;  deformation;  unstable timing;  ARMA;  Forecast
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
根据隧道施工变形的时空效应,提出基于求和型的自回归滑动平均ARIMA(p,d,q)计算模型的隧道变形预测方法.采用差分运算,对现场监测数据平稳性化处理,通过自、偏自相关函数的分析确定计算模型,采用AIC准则确定模型的阶次,最后通过最小二乘法对模型参数进行估计.工程应用表明,非平稳时序分析法的预报值与实际沉降量的平均相对误差为8.28%,最大绝对误差为0.45 mm,说明了采用非平稳时序分析法对隧道施工变形进行短期预报和实时监控是可行的.
Abstract:
According to the spatiotemporal effect of tunnel construction deformation, a tunnel deformation prediction method based on summation type autoregressive sliding average ARIMA (p, d, q) calculation model is proposed. Differential operation is used to stabilize the on-site monitoring data, the computational model is determined by the analysis of self-and partial autocorrelation functions, the order of the model is determined by the AIC criterion, and finally the model parameters are estimated by the least squares method. The engineering application shows that the average relative error between the forecast value and the actual settlement amount of the nonstationary time series analysis method is 8.28%, and the maximum absolute error is 0.45 mm, which shows that it is feasible to use the nonstationary time series analysis method to make short-term prediction and real-time monitoring of tunnel construction deformation.

相似文献/References:

[1]郜新军,段鹏辉,王磊.基坑开挖对邻近管线变形影响及控制措施研究[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2020,41(05):66.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2020.03.015]
　GAO Xinjun,DUAN Penghui,WANG Lei.The Influence of Foundation Pit Excavation on Deformation of Adjacent Underground Pipelines and Control Measures[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2020,41(01):66.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2020.03.015]
[2]彭立敏,刘程,施成华,等.高速铁路站台列车风特性与人员安全性分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2013,34(02):99.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.2013.02.025]
　PENG Li-min,LIU Cheng,SHI Cheng-hua,et al.Characteristics of the Train Wind and Analysis of Personnel Safetyin The High-speed Railway Station[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2013,34(01):99.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.2013.02.025]
[3]陈涛,郭院成,谢春庆..平坦地基上山区高填方路堤变形及稳定性分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2009,30(03):39.
　CHEN Tao,GUO Yuancheng,XIE Chunqing.Deformation and Stability Analysis of High-fill Embankment in Mountainous Areas on Flat Foundation[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2009,30(01):39.
[4]张蓓,王建鹏,王复明,等.隧道超前小导管对掌子面稳定性影响分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2009,30(04):30.
　ZHANG Bei,WANG Jianpeng,WANG Fuming,et al.Analysis of Tunnel Leading Conduit Affecting the Stability of Tunnel Face[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2009,30(01):30.
[5]尹如君,花付南,吕西方,等.高墩大跨T构桥桥墩的有限元分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),1999,20(03):95.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.1999.03.033]
[6]赖永星,成立社,张侃..进水塔复杂结构的有限元分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),1999,20(04):22.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.1999.04.007]
　Lai Yongxing,Establishment of a society,Zhang Kan.Finite element analysis of complex structure of inlet tower[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),1999,20(01):22.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.1999.04.007]

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01