[1]陶　洁,魏溦佳,张玉顺,等.基于创新趋势分析方法的三门峡库区降水变异分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2026,47(01):11-17(72).[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2026.01.007]
　TAO Jie,WEI Weijia,ZHANG Yushun,et al.Analysis of Precipitation Variability in Sanmenxia Reservoir Area Based on Innovative Trend Analysis Methods[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2026,47(01):11-17(72).[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2026.01.007]
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基于创新趋势分析方法的三门峡库区降水变异分析()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
47
期数:
2026年01期
页码:
11-17(72)
栏目:
出版日期:
2026-01-06

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of Precipitation Variability in Sanmenxia Reservoir Area Based on Innovative Trend Analysis Methods
文章编号:
1671-6833(2026)01-0011-07
作者:
陶　洁1; 2;  魏溦佳1;  张玉顺3;  许琳娟4; 5; 6;  左其亭1; 2
1.郑州大学 水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001;2.河南省水循环模拟与水环境保护国际联合实验室,河南 郑州 450001;3.河南省水利科技应用中心,河南 郑州 450000;4.黄河水利委员会 黄河水利科学研究院,河南 郑州 450003;5.水利部黄河下游河道与河口治理重点实验室,河南 郑州 450003;6.黄河实验室,河南 郑州 450003
Author(s):
TAO Jie1; 2;  WEI Weijia1;  ZHANG Yushun3;  XU Linjuan4; 5; 6;  ZUO Qiting1; 2
1.School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2.Henan International Joint Laboratory of Water Cycle Simulation and Environmental Protection, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 3.Henan Provincial Water Conservancy Science and Technology Application Center, Zhengzhou 450000, China; 4.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, YRCC, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 5.Key Laboratory of Lower Yellow River Channel and Estuary Regulation, MWR, Zhengzhou 450003, China; 6.Yellow River Laboratory, Zhengzhou 450003, China
关键词:
降水指标;  创新趋势分析;  创新多边形趋势分析;  创新趋势枢轴分析法;  三门峡库区
Keywords:
precipitation index;  innovative trend analysis;  innovative polygon trend analysis;  innovative trend pivot analysis method;  Sanmenxia Reservoir area
分类号:
P333TV11
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2026.01.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对黄河流域三门峡库区降水变异机制不清、传统趋势分析方法难以捕捉序列内部结构变化的问题,综合应用创新趋势分析(ITA)、创新多边形趋势分析(IPTA)和创新趋势枢轴分析法(ITPAM)系统解析了1957—2020年三门峡气象站降水序列的多尺度变异特征,并与Mann-Kendall等传统趋势检验方法进行对比。结果表明:三门峡气象站年降水整体和高值类均呈现显著下降趋势,统计量S=-1.031;多年月均降水量整体变化较为均匀,但7—9月份呈现出“趋势下降-变幅较大-风险等级高”的复合模式;最大1 d和5 d降水量均呈现显著下降趋势,但降水强度显著上升(S=0.069),区域降水模式向“低频-高强度”转型。与传统方法相比,创新趋势分析方法可以对时间序列的不同时间尺度、不同值区、不同风险等级进行更好的识别和细节解析,更具有灵活性优势。
Abstract:
In response to the unclear mechanism of precipitation variation in the Sanmenxia Reservoir area of the Yellow River Basin and the difficulty of traditional trend analysis methods in capturing internal structural changes in the sequence, innovative trend analysis (ITA), innovative polygon trend analysis (IPTA), and innovative trend pivot analysis method (ITPAM) were comprehensively applied to systematically analyze the multi-scale variation characteristics of the precipitation sequence at the Sanmenxia weather station from 1957 to 2020. And they were compared with traditional trend testing methods such as the Mann-Kendall trend test. The results showed that both the annual precipitation at the Sanmenxia weather station and the high-value category showed a significant downward trend, with a statistic S=-1.031. The overall change in the monthly average precipitation over many years was relatively uniform, but from July to September, a compound pattern of "trend reduction-large variation-high risk level" emerged. The maximum both 1 d and 5 d precipitation showed a significant downward trend, but the precipitation intensity significantly increased (S=0.069), indicating a transformation of the regional precipitation pattern towards "low frequency high intensity". Compared with traditional methods, the innovative trend analysis methods could better identify and detaily analyze different time scales, different value zones, and different risk levels of time series, and had greater flexibility advantages.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-01-17