[1]赵 宁,沙 松,李 蘅,等.跨走滑断层球墨铸铁管道滑入式接口失效风险分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2026,47(5):119-126.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2026.05.003]
　ZHAO Ning,SHA Song,LI Heng,et al.Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Push-on Joints for Ductile Iron Pipelines Undergoing Strike-slip Fault[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2026,47(5):119-126.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2026.05.003]
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跨走滑断层球墨铸铁管道滑入式接口失效风险分析()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
47
期数:
2026年5期
页码:
119-126
栏目:
出版日期:
2026-09-09

文章信息/Info

Title:
Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Push-on Joints for Ductile Iron Pipelines Undergoing Strike-slip Fault
文章编号:
1671-6833(2026)05-0119-08
作者:
赵 宁1,2, 沙 松2, 李 蘅2, 唐 兵2, 周 星2, 方宏远1
1. 郑州大学 黄河实验室,河南 郑州 450001;2. 水资源工程与调度全国重点实验室,湖北 武汉 430010
Author(s):
ZHAO Ning1,2, SHA Song2, LI Heng2, TANG Bing2, ZHOU Xing2, FANG Hongyuan1
1. Yellow River Laboratory, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan 430010, China
关键词:
走滑断层;  概率断层地表位错危险性分析;  球墨铸铁管道滑入式接口;  蒙特卡洛模拟;  失效概率
Keywords:
strike-slip fault;  probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis;  push-on joints of ductile iron pipelines;  Monte Carlo simulation;  failure probability
分类号:
TV672
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2026.05.003
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
跨断层分段管道在地表位错作用下容易在接口处发生漏水失效，现阶段缺乏考虑断层地表破裂位置、地表位错量等不确定性的接口失效风险定量评估研究。为此，提出一种结合概率断层地表位错危险性分析与蒙特卡罗模拟的接口失效风险评估框架，量化管道穿越区域的地表位错危险性及接口年失效概率。以穿越云南曲江断裂的某公称直径1400 mm、单节管长6 m的球墨铸铁管道为例开展分析，管道穿越区域重现期475 a、975 a、2 475 a的地表位错量分别为0.70 m、1.49 m、3.08 m；当断层‑管线交角为70°时，接口年失效概率最小，约为3.43×10⁻³，失效模式为旋转失效。研究表明：随着断层‑管线交角及管径的增大，接口失效模式由受拉失效逐渐过渡至旋转失效；接口年失效概率受地表位错分布模型影响。建议实际工程中结合断层‑管线交角、管径等具体参数选取相对保守的地表位错分布模型评估接口失效风险。
Abstract:
It was found that buried segmented pipelines crossing active faults are prone to leak at joints with surface fault rupture displacements. However, no quantitative assessment study was conducted on joint failure risk that considered uncertainties such as surface rupture location and the magnitude of surface rupture displacement. In this study, an assessment framework for joint failure risk combining Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed to quantify the surface rupture hazard in the pipeline crossing area and the annual failure probability of joints. A ductile iron pipeline with a nominal diameter of 1 400 mm and a segment length of 6 m crossing the Qujiang Fault in Yunnan was analyzed as a case study. The surface rupture displacements in the pipeline crossing area for recurrence periods of 475 years, 975 years, and 2 475 years were determined to be 0.70 m, 1.49 m, and 3.08 m, respectively. When the fault‑pipeline intersection angle was set to 70°, the annual failure probability of the joint was found to reach its minimum value of approximately 3.43×10⁻³ with the failure mode identified as rotational failure. It was revealed that the joint failure mode gradually transitioned from tensile failure to rotational failure as the fault‑pipeline intersection angle and pipe diameter increased. It was recommended that the most conservative surface displacement distribution model should be selected based on specific parameters such as the fault‑pipe intersection angle and pipe diameter to assess joint failure risk in practical engineering.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2026-09-07