[1]李宗坤,宋子元,葛巍,等.基于模糊集理论的土石坝开裂破坏风险分析[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2020,41(05):55-59.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2020.03.019]
　LI Zongkun,SONG Ziyuan,GE Wei,et al.Risk Analysis of Cracking Failure of Earth-rock Dam Based on Fuzzy Set Theory[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2020,41(05):55-59.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2020.03.019]
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基于模糊集理论的土石坝开裂破坏风险分析()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
41卷
期数:
2020年05期
页码:
55-59
栏目:
出版日期:
2020-10-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Analysis of Cracking Failure of Earth-rock Dam Based on Fuzzy Set Theory
作者:
李宗坤; 宋子元; 葛巍; 王特; 张兆省
郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001, 郑州大学软件学院,河南郑州450002, 郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001, 郑州大学水利科学与工程学院,河南郑州450001, 代尔夫特理工大学技术、政策和管理学院,荷兰代尔夫特2628 BX, 河南省前坪水库建设管理局,河南郑州450003

Author(s):
LI Zongkun1; 2;  SONG Ziyuan1;  GE Wei1; 3;  WANG Te1;  ZHANG Zhaosheng4
1.School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2.School of Software, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, China; 3.Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 BX, the Netherlands; 4.Henan Qianping Reservoir Construction Administration, Zhengzhou 450003, China
关键词:
Keywords:
earth-rock dam;  cracking failure;  tension crack;  fuzzy set theory;  Monte Carlo method
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2020.03.019
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对传统土石坝抗裂可靠度分析只考虑变量随机性的不足,引入模糊集理论,综合考虑土体应变参数随机性和模糊性及失效准则模糊性分析,构建了土石坝开裂破坏风险评估模型。求解模型时,运用水平截集将模糊参数转化为区间数,采用Monte Carlo模拟方法求解模糊风险率区间上下限。应用该模型对毛尖山水库大坝进行开裂风险分析,当水平截集a取0.5时,得到大坝运行5a和39.5a的开裂破坏模糊风险率区间分别为[5.23%,7.91%]和[28.91%,32.49%]。分析结果表明:与根据传统风险确定值得出的结论相比,根据模糊风险率区间得出的结论更切合大坝开裂的实际状况，可为大坝结构安全评估与管理提供参考和依据 。
Abstract:
Only the randomness of variables was considered in the traditional reliability analysis for crack resistance of earth-rock dam. By introducing fuzzy set theory, the randomness and fuzziness of soil strain parameters and the fuzziness of failure criterion were considered comprehensively to establish the risk assessment model of cracking failure of earth-rock dam. Furthermore, the Monte Carlo simulation method was used to solve the upper and lower limits of fuzzy risk probability based on the interval numbers which were transferred from the fuzzy parameters by the level cut set. The model was applied to the cracking risk analysis of Maojianshan reservoir dam. When the level cut set α=0.5, the fuzzy risk intervals of cracking failure for 5 and 39.5 years of dam operation were [5.23%, 7.91%] and [28.91%, 32.49%], respectively. Compared with the conclusions based on the traditional risk determination, the result showed that the conclusions based on the fuzzy risk interval were closed to the actual situation of dam cracking, which could provide reference and basis for dam structure safety assessment and management.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2020-10-23