[1]徐铭达,杜占玮,王 震,等.基于城市接触网络的新发传染病风险监测[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2025,46(04):76-84.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2025.04.003]
　XU Mingda,DU Zhanwei,WANG Zhen,et al.Emerging Infectious Disease Risk Surveillance Based on Urban Contact Networks[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2025,46(04):76-84.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2025.04.003]
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基于城市接触网络的新发传染病风险监测()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
46
期数:
2025年04期
页码:
76-84
栏目:
出版日期:
2025-07-10

文章信息/Info

Title:
Emerging Infectious Disease Risk Surveillance Based on Urban Contact Networks
文章编号:
1671-6833(2025)04-0076-09
作者:
徐铭达1;  杜占玮2;  王 震3;  高 超1
1. 西北工业大学 光电与智能研究院,陕西 西安 710072;2. 香港大学 公共卫生学院,香港 999077;3. 西北工业大学 网络空间安全学院,陕西 西安 710072
Author(s):
XU Mingda1;  DU Zhanwei2;  WANG Zhen3;  GAO Chao1
1. School of Artificial Intelligence, OPtics and ElectroNics ( iOPEN) , Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’ an 710072, China; 2. School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region 999077, China; 3. School of Cybersecurity, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’ an 710072, China
关键词:
接触网络;  风险监测;  传染病建模;  早期预警;  大数据挖掘
Keywords:
contact network;  risk surveillance;  infectious disease modelling;  early warning;  big data mining
分类号:
TP391N94
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2025.04.003
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对新发传染病传播初期缺乏高分辨率的人际接触数据,难以基于接触网络全局结构特性实施传染病早期预警的挑战,面向多源数据驱动的传染病哨点监测策略研究,提出了一种基于城市接触网络的新发传染病风险监测框架。 通过整合多源普查和调查数据,构建了映射城市人口结构特征的接触网络,用以模拟特定城市中新发传染病的传播态势。 基于此,提出了一种“一户一人”的家庭监测策略,该策略不需要预知全局网络结构,仅需少量哨点样本即可实现接近全人群覆盖的监测效果。 实验结果表明:在疾病低传染性时期( 基本再生数为 1. 2) ,家庭监测策略与随机监测策略的性能相近,相较于监测整体人群能够降低监测成本。 随着传染病的传染性增加( 基本再生数为 2. 0 和 3. 0) ,家庭监测策略的早期预警性能仅次于最大连接策略,能够有效感知新发传染病的传播风险,同时相比随机监测策略,其早期预警时间分别平均提前了 1. 03 d(37%)和 0. 69 d(53%) 。
Abstract:
Given the challenge of limited high-resolution human contact data during the early stages of emerging infectious disease outbreaks, it is difficult to implement early warning strategies via the global structural characteristics of contact networks. Multi-source data-driven sentinel surveillance strategies for infectious diseases were the focuses of this study, and a novel framework for emerging infectious disease risk surveillance based on urban contact networks was proposed. By integrating multi-source census and survey data, a contact network reflecting the characteristics of the urban population structure was constructed to simulate the transmission of emerging infectious disease in specific cities. Based on this, a " one person per household" surveillance strategy was proposed. This strategy leveraged a small number of selected sentinel samples to achieve near-whole population coverage for effective risk surveillance, eliminating the need for prior knowledge of the global network structure. Experimental results demonstrated that during periods of low disease transmissibility ( basic reproduction number of 1. 2) , the proposed household surveillance strategy performed at the same level to the random surveillance strategy, while with lower cost compared with surveillance the whole population. As transmissibility increased ( basic reproduction number from 2. 0 to 3. 0) , the early warning performance of household surveillance strategy ranked the second only to the most connected strategy, effectively capturing the transmission of emerging infectious diseases. Notably, it effectively captured the transmission risk of emerging infectious diseases, providing an early warning time of 1. 03 d(37%) and 0. 69 d(53%) compared with the random surveillance strategy.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2025-07-13