[1]葛　巍,孙贺强,等.考虑潜在溃坝的水库大坝运行成本和收益量化方法[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2025,46(01):59-66.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2025.01.013]
　GE Wei,,et al.Quantification Method of Operation Cost and Benefit of Reservoir Dam Considering Potential Dam Breach[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2025,46(01):59-66.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2025.01.013]
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考虑潜在溃坝的水库大坝运行成本和收益量化方法()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
46
期数:
2025年01期
页码:
59-66
栏目:
出版日期:
2024-12-23

文章信息/Info

Title:
Quantification Method of Operation Cost and Benefit of Reservoir Dam Considering Potential Dam Breach
文章编号:
1671-6833(2025)01-0059-08
作者:
葛　巍1; 2; 3;  孙贺强1;  2;  李永闯1;  2;  4;  景来红3;  李宗坤1;  2;  王建有1;  2
1.郑州大学 水利与交通学院,河南 郑州 450001;2.郑州大学 黄河实验室,河南 郑州 450001;3.黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南 郑州 450003;4.郑州航空港科创投资集团有限公司,河南 郑州 451162
Author(s):
GE Wei1;  2;  3;  SUN Heqiang1;  2;  LI Yongchuang1;  2;  4;  JING Laihong3;  LI Zongkun1;  2;  WANG Jianyou1;  2
1.School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 2.Yellow River Laboratory, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China; 3.Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 450003, China; 4.Zhengzhou Airport Economy Zone Science and Technology Innovation Investment Group Co., Ltd., Zhengzhou 451162, China
关键词:
水库大坝;  成本收益;  量化方法;  自身风险;  溃坝
Keywords:
reservoir dam;  cost benefit;  quantitative method;  own risk;  dam breach
分类号:
TV698F281
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2025.01.013
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对水库大坝逐渐老化、自身风险和运行成本不断增加的情况,为了进一步明确水库大坝运行的经济性,构建了一种考虑潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化模型。首先,综合考虑大坝潜在溃坝的影响,根据ISM理论明确了水库大坝运行成本与收益影响因素之间的相互作用关系,确定了水库大坝运行综合成本与综合收益量化指标;其次,基于DEMATEL法分析了各因素之间的相互作用程度,明确了各成本与收益指标之间相对重要程度;最后,结合技术经济学理论,计算了潜在溃坝损失作用下的水库大坝运行综合成本和综合收益。将所提模型应用于国内某水库,计算了该水库的运行综合成本和综合收益,并对其经济性进行了分析,结果表明:在考虑潜在溃坝损失的情况下,该水库运行综合成本为743.62万元,综合收益为10 911.83万元,收益成本比为14.67,运行综合收益远大于运行综合成本,创收能力良好,经济效益显著。
Abstract:
For the problems of gradual aging of reservoir dams and increasing risks and operation costs, a model to quantify the comprehensive costs and benefits of reservoir dam operation considering potential dam breach losses was constructed. Firstly, the impact of potential dam breach was considered comprehensively, the interaction relationship between the cost and benefit influencing factors of reservoir dam operation according to the ISM theory was clarified, and the quantitative indicators of the comprehensive cost and benefit of reservoir dam operation were determined. Secondly, the degree of interaction between the factors was analyzed based on the DEMATEL method, which clarified the relative importance between each cost and benefit indicator. Finally, the comprehensive cost and benefit of reservoir dam operation with potential dam breach losses were calculated in combination with the technoeconomic theory. The model was applied to a reservoir in China. The comprehensive cost and benefit of the reservoir operation were calculated, and its economic benefits were analyzed. The results showed that the comprehensive cost of operating this reservoir was 7 436 200 Yuan while considering of potential dam breach losses, the comprehensive benefit was 109 118 300 Yuan, and the benefit-cost ratio was 14.67. The comprehensive benefit of operation was much larger than the comprehensive cost of operation, the revenue-generating capacity was good, and the economic benefits were significant.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2024-12-31