[1]李宗坤,胡义磊,邓 宇,等.基于改进突变评价法的黄河凌汛灾害风险评价[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2023,44(01):89-95.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2022.04.011]
　LI Zongkun,HU Yilei,et al.The Yellow River Ice Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory Evaluation Method[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2023,44(01):89-95.[doi:10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2022.04.011]
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基于改进突变评价法的黄河凌汛灾害风险评价()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
44
期数:
2023年01期
页码:
89-95
栏目:
出版日期:
2022-12-06

文章信息/Info

Title:
The Yellow River Ice Flood Disaster Risk Assessment Based on Improved Catastrophe Theory Evaluation Method
作者:
李宗坤1; 2 ;  胡义磊1 ;  邓 宇3; 4;  葛 巍1; 5
1. 郑州大学 水利科学与工程学院,河南 郑州 450001;2. 郑州大学 软件学院,河南 郑州 450002;3. 黄河水利科学 研究院,河南 郑州 450003;4. 水利部堤防安全与病害防治工程技术研究中心,河南 郑州 450003;5. 代尔夫特理工 大学技术、政策和管理学院,荷兰 代尔夫特 2628 BX
Author(s):
LI Zongkun1;  2;  HU Yilei1;  DENG Yu3;  4;  GE Wei1;  5
1.School of Water Conservancy Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China;2.School of Software, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450002, China;3.Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research, Zhengzhou 450003, China;4.Research Center on Levee Safety and Disaster Prevention, MWR, Zhengzhou 450003, China;5.Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft 2628 BX, the Netherlands
关键词:
Keywords:
ice flood disaster;  risk evaluation;  catastrophe theory;  improvement;  three-parameter exponent
分类号:
TV875；X43
DOI:
10.13705/j.issn.1671-6833.2022.04.011
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对突变评价法综合评价值偏高、评价值之间比较接近的问题,提出了一种采用三参数指数型曲线进行 回归分析的改进方法,并对改进方法的合理性进行了验证,计算得到的改进评价值与常规评价值相比,不仅大小排 序一致,而且极差明显增大,数据在[0,1] 的分布更加分散。从凌灾的自然属性和社会属性两个方面出发,建立了 4 个层次的黄河凌汛灾害风险评价指标体系,并将进方法应用于黄河内蒙古头道拐至万家寨河段两岸4 个旗县 的凌汛灾害风险评价中。结果表明:偏关县属于极低风险地区;准格尔旗属于高风险地区;清水河县和托克托县均 属于中等风险地区;常规突变评价法得到的综合评价值很接近,除偏关县外,其余均集中在[ 0. 912,0. 941] ,不利于 直观有效地区分风险的大小程度,而改进的突变评价法使调整后的综合评价值分布范围有效扩大,极差达到了 0. 446,具有更高的分辨水平,风险的大小等级更具可比性。评价结果与对各地区实际凌情的分析基本一致。
Abstract:
Considering the problem that the comprehensive evaluation value of the catastrophe theory evaluation method was too high and the evaluation values were relatively close, an improved method for regression analysis using a three-parameter exponential curve was proposed and verified by two examples. Not only the calculated improved evaluation value and the conventional evaluation value were the same in size order, but also the range was significantly increased, and the distribution of the data on [0,1] was more scattered. Considering the natural and social attributes of the Yellow River ice flood disaster, established a four-level risk evaluation index system was established, and the improved method was applied to the ice flood disaster risk assessment of 4 counties on both sides of the Yellow River from Toudaoguai to Wanjiazhai in Inner Mongolia. The results showed that Pianguan County was in a very low-risk area; Zhungeer Banner was in a high-risk area; Qingshuihe County and Tuoketuo County were in the medium-risk area. The comprehensive evaluation values obtained by the conventional catastrophe theory evaluation method were very close, except for Pianguan, the rest are concentrated in the interval [0.912, 0.941], which was not conducive to intuitively and effectively distinguishing the degree of risk. The improved method could effectively expand the distribution range of the adjusted comprehensive evaluation value, and the range reached 0.446, which had a higher level of resolution, and the level of risk was more comparable. The evaluation results were basically consistent with the analysis of actual ice conditions in various regions.

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更新日期/Last Update: 2022-12-07