[1]田智慧,王世杰..基于四阶段预测理论的公路交通量预测研究[J].郑州大学学报(工学版),2008,29(03):133-136.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.2008.03.034]
 TIAN Zhizhi,Wang Shijie.Research on highway traffic volume prediction based on four-stage prediction theory[J].Journal of Zhengzhou University (Engineering Science),2008,29(03):133-136.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.2008.03.034]
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基于四阶段预测理论的公路交通量预测研究()
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《郑州大学学报(工学版)》[ISSN:1671-6833/CN:41-1339/T]

卷:
29
期数:
2008年03期
页码:
133-136
栏目:
出版日期:
1900-01-01

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on highway traffic volume prediction based on four-stage prediction theory
作者:
田智慧王世杰.
郑州大学,环境与水利学院,河南,郑州,450001, 河南省交通规划勘察设计院,河南,郑州,450052
Author(s):
TIAN Zhizhi; Wang Shijie
关键词:
公路交通量 四阶段预测理论 河南省 公路交通量预测
Keywords:
road traffic four-stage forecasting theory Henan Province Highway traffic forecasting
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1671-6833.2008.03.034
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
区域公路交通量的科学预测是区域公路网规划的前提和基础.在分析了我国从1980年以来公路交通工具的变化后,指出今后应以小汽车作为公路交通量衡量的标准,在此基础上,运用四阶段预测分析理论,研究和建立了适合河南省特点的公路交通量预测模型和方法,对河南省公路交通量的需求生成、交通分布、交通方式的选择和交通分配进行了预测和分析,并用郑州-漯河高速公路、漯河-驻马店高速公路2007年交通量的实际数据进行验证,结果表明,采用四阶段分析预测理论建立的预测模型较好地预测了河南省的公路交通量.
Abstract:
Scientific prediction of regional highway traffic is the premise and basis of regional highway network planning. After analyzing the changes of highway traffic in China since 1980, it is pointed out that in the future, cars should be used as the standard for measuring highway traffic, on this basis, the four-stage predictive analysis theory is used to research and establish a highway traffic forecasting model and method suitable for the characteristics of Henan Province, and the demand generation, traffic distribution, transportation mode selection and traffic distribution of highway traffic in Henan Province are predicted and analyzed. The actual data of the traffic volume of Luohe-Zhumadian Expressway in 2007 are verified, and the results show that the prediction model established by using the four-stage analysis and prediction theory can better predict the highway traffic volume in Henan Province.

更新日期/Last Update: 1900-01-01